Since the appearance of Bitcoin In 2009, cryptocurrencies evolve in market cycles, punctuated by periods of increase called bull runs. There are different theories about the causes of these cycles: some believe that the halving Bitcoin, where the mining reward is halved, creates a shortage of supply. Others believe that the overall state of the world economy, largely influenced by the Fed's key rates, is the cause.
The end of 2024 could be a period of bull run, marked by economic and financial elements that favor investment in digital assets. Let's explore the different theories on the causes of these bull runs and estimates on the end of bull run 2024.
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The impact of Bitcoin halving in 2024
Le halving is a core mechanism of the Bitcoin protocol. Roughly every four years, the reward for each mined block is reduced, thereby decreasing the supply of new Bitcoins to the market. This scarcity process is designed to encourage stability in the Bitcoin economy by limiting its inflation and ensuring demand exceeds supply.
In 2024, the halving could once again play a major role in the dynamics of cryptocurrencies. With fewer new Bitcoins being put into circulation and the growing interest in cryptocurrencies, its value could increase, triggering a leverage effect on the investments scholarships and promoting diversity of assets in the portfolio investors. Many investors view Bitcoin as a risky asset diversification their movable investments.
Historically, this event has always triggered a significant increase in the price of Bitcoin and, by extension, the crypto market as a whole.
Theories about the end of the bull run 2024
Historically, every Bitcoin halving has been followed by a bull run a few months later. For example:
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May 2020 Halving : Bitcoin peaked in April 2021, 11 months later.
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July 2016 Halving : Bitcoin peaked in December 2017.
With the halving on April 20, 2024, and now the same length of gap between halving and market top as in previous cycles, some believe that the peak could come around March 2025. But it is important to remember that this correlation remains a theory. There is no definitive proof that the halving is the sole cause of the bull runs.
EDIT of 07/02: given the current progress of the various indicators, the theory of a peak in March seems very unlikely. Monitoring the indicators mentioned below will always be more relevant to determine a market peak than any other impression, theory or other.
Why this theory is questioned
Some analysts point out that the overall economy has an equally significant impact. For example, accommodative monetary policy, such as low interest rates, stimulates appetite for risk assets.
Influence of the FED rate cut in September 2024
La US Federal Reserve (FED) a lowered interest rates by 0,5% September 18, 2024, which had a direct impact on the crypto market. Low rates favor investments in risky assets, as the cash are more readily available. This monetary movement also encourages investors to seek out Financial assets alternatives, and cryptocurrencies benefit from this.

This rate cut reflects an accommodative monetary policy that stimulates the global economy by encouraging liquidity in the markets, thus favoring investments in digital currencies. In a low-rate environment, volatile assets, such as cryptocurrencies, appear as an attractive counterpart to traditional investments in currencies, stocks and bonds.
Signs of trend reversal in the markets in September 2024
September 2024 was marked by strong signals of trend reversal, with emerging cryptocurrencies like Bittensor, Follow, Fetch.you have pendle et Superverse showing bullish performances after several months of correction. Institutional investors, encouraged by the drop in rates, saw in this trend the opportunity to diversify their portfolio and increase their exposure to cryptos, perceived as a short-term asset capable of generating significant gains.
The return of inflation and the decline in monetary policy thus create a favorable environment for cryptos, whose role is becoming central in the landscape of modern financial assets.
4-year cycles in the crypto market
Since the creation of Bitcoin, the market has followed a regular cyclic pattern, marked by phases of accumulation, euphoria, correction, then recovery. These cycles last an average of four years.
In 2024, the market seems to enter a new recovery phase after the mid-cycle correction between March and September 2024.
The pattern seems to be repeating itself, and signs of a trend reversal are beginning to emerge. This cyclical dynamic, which attracts global funds into cryptocurrencies, has repercussions on the global economy, as it encourages managers et investors to reconsider their strategies in traditional financial assets.
Crypto market cycles thus influence the policy ofasset allocation many Investment Funds et financial institutions the emerging countries, in particular, see this diversification as a means of mitigating global economic impacts by creating investments alternatives for investors.

With a trend reversal starting to take shape in September 2024, the market looks set to rebound strongly for the end of year 2024.
Estimated end date bull run : tools to watch
Why this bull run is it different?
Le bull run 2024 could present some particularities compared to previous cycles. First, the crypto market benefits from clearer regulation and the arrival of many players institutions. The latter see it as a means of diversification compared to traditional actions, such as those of the CAC 40 or Dow Jones, and an attractive counterpart in an uncertain rate environment.
Cryptocurrencies are also increasingly perceived as securities by financial authorities, and investors are using solvency ratios to assess their viability. A solvency ratio is an indicator that measures the ability of an asset or company to meet its long-term debts and obligations. Applied to cryptos, this ratio helps investors estimate the financial stability and safety of the asset, similar to the analyses carried out for stocks or bonds of traditional companies.
The cryptocurrency market being particularly young, it remains very speculative even if the decentralized finance (DeFi), DePin or againIOT become value-creating pillars. Each narrative is more or less advanced on the Gartner curve.
Risks and opportunities for investors facing the end of the bull run 2024-2025
As the end of the bull run 2024 could be reached around March 2025, investors find themselves at a crossroads between opportunities and risks. A bull run often attracts massive capital, fueled by euphoria and the hope of exceptional returns. However, this market phase, marked by increased volatility, can also lead to brutal corrections.
To anticipate the end of a cycle, diversifying your investments remains crucial. For example, distributing your portfolio between promising sectors such as artificial intelligence (IA), DePin (Decentralized Physical Infrastructure Networks), DeFi (decentralized finance), or block chains layer 1 platforms like Ethereum and Solana, can help limit risks.
Such a strategy allows you to avoid being totally exposed to a single sector, which is often subject to unpredictable movements during market reversals.
FAQ
What is Bitcoin Halving and its impact on the markets?
Halving halves miners' rewards, creating scarcity that increases demand and can lead to a bull run. This process directly impacts the capitalization Bitcoin and boosts digital currency liquidity.Why is 2024 a promising year for the crypto market?
In addition to the halving, the FED's rate cuts encourage investors towards risky assets, and the bull run could strengthen their presence in the portfolios of many managers of funds.What are the signs of a recovery for the crypto market?
Several altcLess like Sui and Bittensor show increasing performance in September 2024, indicating a trend reversal supported by increased demand for digital assets.What are the risks of volatility during a bull run ?
Volatility can cause prices to fluctuate rapidly, but diversifying assets in your portfolio helps reduce these risks and benefit from potential upside.
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