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What are the prospects for the price of gold by 2025?
Gold is often considered a barometer of uncertainty. If you're new to investing , understanding what makes it rise or fall will help you better assess whether it has a place in your portfolio . In this article, we'll first look at the fundamental forces behind its value, then the macroeconomic context and the signals to watch for to anticipate its trajectory towards the end of 2025. This article does not constitute investment advice.
Table of contents
Intrinsic value of gold: what underlies its price
Rarity and limited reserve
Gold is a precious metal with a limited supply. Unlike fiat currencies, which can be printed, gold cannot be created at will. This is one of the main factors influencing the price of gold .
Inflation hedge and weakened fiat currency
Gold is often seen as a store of value during periods of inflation or currency depreciation. When a central bank prints money or when the purchasing power of a currency declines, gold can act as a hedge. This is particularly true when the real return on bonds is negative (low nominal rates or inflation ).
Industrial use, jewelry and physical demand
A significant portion of the demand for gold comes from the jewelry sector and industry (connectors, electronic components, dentistry). This physical demand acts as structural support for the price, especially in large gold-consuming economies (India, China).
The monetary and historical role of gold
Gold has long been at the heart of the monetary system: the gold standard, currency guarantees, and so on. During the gold standard era, currencies were convertible into gold. Then, gradually, fiat currencies replaced it. But gold retains a symbolic role and anchors trust. Over time, it has become a asset —that is, an asset to which investors turn in times of crisis or uncertainty.
Macroeconomic factors that weigh on the price of gold
Key interest rates and monetary policy (particularly the Fed)
Interest rates are a major lever for gold. When the **US Federal Reserve (Fed)** raises its rates, it makes bonds more attractive, which can divert capital away from gold. Conversely, expectations of rate cuts or accommodative policies favor other assets, particularly those considered riskier such as stocks or cryptocurrencies, but also gold.
In 2025, markets anticipate several rate cuts by the Fed, fueling bullish expectations for gold.
However, if inflation remains stubbornly high (the “too hot” scenario), the Fed could delay these cuts, thus dampening the momentum for gold.
Money printing, quantitative easing and liquidity
Liquidity and monetary policy
quantitative easing program comparable to those of 2008 or 2020. However, the rate cuts already begun in 2025 have revived an expansion of the money supply, as evidenced by global liquidity indicators (M2).
This injection of liquidity, even indirect, acts as support for gold, as it fuels fears of monetary dilution and increases the amount of money available for injection into global markets, including gold. In the event of a more pronounced economic slowdown, markets even anticipate a return to more accommodative measures, which could further amplify this favorable effect on the precious metal.
Feeling “risk off” versus “risk on”
Gold is a risk-off : it benefits during periods of risk aversion (crises, uncertainties, volatility). Conversely, during periods of market euphoria (risk-on), investors favor stocks, cryptocurrencies, or other assets with higher potential. Geopolitical events (tensions between major powers, conflicts, political crises) reinforce the flight to this safe-haven asset. Conversely, a return of global confidence, strong growth, or significant innovations can draw capital toward riskier assets, to the detriment of gold.
Pressures on the US dollar and desensitization (de-dollarization)
Because gold is often priced in dollars , a depreciation of the dollar makes gold cheaper for holders of other currencies, thus fueling international demand. Conversely, a strong dollar puts downward pressure on gold. In 2025, certain geopolitical tensions and the diversification of central bank reserves into other assets (cryptocurrencies, alternative currencies) are fueling the debate on reducing sensitivity to the dollar , which could support gold.
Seasonality: Gold at the end of the year
The study of seasonal trends in gold over 30 years (1986–2016) highlights cycles . The graph clearly shows that gold does not react uniformly throughout the year, but rather experiences more favorable periods:
- From January to February, the price generally progresses steadily, driven by physical demand at the beginning of the year.
- From March to June, the trend becomes more erratic with periods of correction. This period is historically weaker, marked by moderate demand.
- From July-August onwards, the curve regains an upward bias, with an initial acceleration that is confirmed in September.
- From September to October, there is marked volatility: after a strong rise, gold often experiences a temporary decline.
- Finally, from November to December, gold regained positive momentum and ended the year on a robust upward trend, as shown by the strong year-end surge on the chart.
In summary, historical data suggests that the most favorable period for gold is between mid-September and the end of January, with a marked peak in September and a sustained upward trend at the end of the year. This seasonality is thought to be linked to increased demand in the jewelry sector (India, China), the holiday season, and the repositioning of institutional portfolios. As of this writing, we have indeed seen a significant surge in the price of gold in September 2025.
Comparison with stocks and cryptocurrencies at the end of the year
At the end of the year, equity markets often experience a "year-end rally" (Christmas effect), where investors rebalance their portfolios. This can favor equities over safe-haven assets. Cryptocurrencies, on the other hand, remain sensitive to sentiment and risk appetite: if the mood is bullish, they can rise much more sharply than gold, but they are also more volatile.
If the macroeconomic environment turns uncertain or leads to crisis, gold can outperform these asset classes. The strong performance of gold relative to stocks and cryptocurrencies in 2025 demonstrates that the "safety" sentiment has prevailed.
Possible scenarios for the price of gold by the end of 2025
Here are some possible trajectories, along with their triggers:
“Increased risk aversion” (bullish) scenario
- The Fed announces earlier or more numerous rate cuts than expected → increased attractiveness of gold versus bonds.
- Inflation remains high or rises → investors flee to gold as a hedge.
- Geopolitical shocks (crises, conflicts, political uncertainty) stimulate the demand for safe-haven.
- Central banks continue to increase their gold reserves, with sustained purchases.
- The dollar weakened permanently, favoring purchases outside the United States.
In this scenario, some forecasts predict gold will be in the $4,000–4,500 ounce range by the end of 2025.
Scenario “return of confidence / recovery of risky markets” (moderate to bearish)
- The Fed slows down or postpones its cuts if inflation persists → real rates remain attractive for traditional investments.
- Global growth is restarting, boosting appetite for equities, emerging markets, and cryptocurrencies.
- Few major geopolitical shocks or resolution of tensions → less need for “refuge”.
- The dollar is strengthening, making gold more expensive for non-dollarized countries.
- Flows into gold ETFs are slowing down or even reversing.
Points of vigilance and turning areas
- If expectations of rate cuts are disappointing.
- If confidence in the markets is suddenly restored.
Recommendations for a beginner and practical advice
Steps to follow the gold market
- Monitor Fed announcements & comments on inflation.
- Observe the flows of gold ETFs (weekly/daily statistics).
- Monitor the performance of the dollar (USD indices) and the fluctuations of major currencies.
- Take into account major geopolitical events (risks, crises, conflicts).
- Compare with equity and crypto markets to identify strong divergences.
Safety advice
Do not allocate an excessive portion of your portfolio to gold, as it is an asset without yield (no dividend, no coupon).
Gold often acts as a complementary diversification tool.
Reassess your position regularly based on macroeconomic developments.
Conclusion
The price of gold is subject to a complex interaction between structural factors (scarcity, industrial use, monetary role) and cyclical forces (monetary policy, expectations, sentiment, global context). Two trajectories appear credible between now and the end of 2025:
An upward trajectory if inflation persists, if the Fed paves the way for rate cuts and if uncertainty dominates: in this case, gold could aim for new highs above $4,000 an ounce.
A moderate or consolidation trajectory if economic conditions normalize, with a return of confidence towards risky assets.
The seasonal nature of the year-end could create a slight bias in favor of gold (particularly in November and December), especially if institutional flows remain positive. Finally, for a novice investor, gold acts as a stabilizer and hedge.
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Yoann
Training engineer, I quickly became interested in the field of finance. Convinced that decentralized finance has a bright future ahead of it, I participate in its democratization by developing Crypternon.
