Intermediate
Number of bitcoins in circulation: decryption of the real BTC offer
The number of bitcoins in circulation corresponds to the BTC actually available on the market, with a ceiling fixed once and for all at 21 million units. Today, around 19.83 million have been undermined, but a large part is lost or preserved without being exchanged. This limited reserve , inscribed in the very protocol of Bitcoin, contrasts strongly with traditional currencies, which can be printed in unlimited quantities by central banks.
It is precisely this fixed ceiling which gives Bitcoin a long -term single value . Faced with the inflation of fiduciary currencies, whose purchasing power continues to erode, Bitcoin is increasingly attracting those looking for a rare, non -manipable and deflationary active.
To better understand this dynamic, do not hesitate to explore our inflation calculation tool between 2 dates which allows you to visualize concretely how the money loses in value over the years.
Table of contents
Number of bitcoins in circulation: 2 main categories of bitcoins
To better understand the functioning of Bitcoin, it is essential to distinguish several categories of corners that make up the global offer. This distribution makes it possible to assess the liquidity, volatility and the real value of the asset.
Active Supply: bitcoins in dynamic circulation
The Active Supply includes bitcoins mobilized in recent transactions. These corners are regularly used in exchanges, which contributes to the liquidity of the market.
In other words, they are a reflection of economic activity on the blockchain . Studies carried out by Glassnode and Ark Invest, in particular via the Cointime Economics model, indicate that around 15 to 16 million BTC (or almost 71 to 76 % of the supply extracted) enter this category.
Vaulted Supply: sleeping or lost bitcoins
The Vaulted Supply includes bitcoins that have been inactive for long periods. They were not used for transactions. This category includes:
- The corners that have never been moved, including the mining awards kept by minors.
- The “probably lost supply”, that is to say the bitcoins that have not moved since the beginnings of Bitcoin (often since 2010) and whose access has been lost.
According to the best estimates based on the Cointime Economics approach, the Vaulted Supply would represent approximately 18.5 to 23.2 % of the total supply, between 3.9 and 4.9 million BTC.
Miner Unspent Supply: the corners never spent by minors
Another important component of the offer consists of bitcoins which were allocated to minors when the blocks was created and which were never transferred. These corners, called Unspent Supply miner , represent approximately 1.77 million BTC , which is equivalent to almost 8.5 % of the whole.
Probably lost supply: definitely lost bitcoins
The category of probably lost supply concerns BTC which have not been mobilized for a very long time, often since 2010. These corners have been considered definitively lost, because their owners have probably lost their private keys. Estimates situate this share around 1.46 million BTC , or around 7 % of the total offer.
Upper Bound Estimate: The upper terminal of inactive corners
In order to supervise the phenomenon, some models offer a maximum estimate, called Upper Bound Estimate . This model incorporates all of the inactive corners and suggests that at the maximum, up to 6.87 million BTC (about 32.7 % of the total supply) could be inactive or lost.
Number of bitcoins in circulation: analysis methodology, the Cointime Economics framework
To dissect the distribution of Bitcoin's offer, experts like James Check and David Puell developed the Cointe Economics . This framework is based on the idea of measuring the time during which a bitcoin remains held without being moved, using a measurement unit called Coinblock .
Each bitcoin generates Coinblocks as long as it is stored in a wallet .
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When the area is spent, these Coinblocks are "destroyed". This approach makes it possible to obtain two major indicators:
- The Active Supply corresponds to the sum of bitcoins whose cornertime was consumed by recent transactions.
- The Vaulted Supply corresponds to the bitcoins that accumulate from the corner without being spent.
This model offers a finer and dynamic vision of the Bitcoin economy, clearly distinguishing the actually available offer from stored or lost corners.
Summary table of the distribution of the offer
To better visualize this distribution, here is a synthetic table based on the research of James Check and David Puell:
Distribution of the Bitcoin offer
| Category | Description | Estimate (in millions of BTC) | Approximate percentage |
|---|---|---|---|
| Active Supply | Bitcoins mobilized in recent transactions | 15 to 16 | 71 to 76 % |
| Vaulted Supply | Inactive or asleep corners (including lost corners) | 3.9 to 4.9 | 18.5 to 23.2 % |
| Miner Unspent Supply | Corners allocated to minors who have never been spent | About 1.77 | 8,5 % |
| Probably lost supply | Inactive corners since 2010, considered to be lost | Approximately 1.46 | 7 % |
| Upper Bound estimate | Maximum estimate of lost/sleeping corners | Up to 6.87 | 32,7 % |
This table illustrates how, even with nearly 21 million BTC extracted, a significant part remains inactive or lost, thus affecting the available offer for exchanges.
Number of bitcoins in circulation: Technical analysis without unnecessary jargon
To facilitate understanding, here are some simple explanations of the technical terms used in this analysis:
Cointime and Coinblocks
The Cointime combines the volume of bitcoins and the duration during which they remain in a wallet. Coinblocks are the units of measurement of the corner . As long as a bitcoin is not spent, it generates Coinblocks, which makes it possible to assess its level of inactivity or activity.
Active Supply vs Vaulted Supply
The distinction between Active Supply and Vaulted Supply is essential to understand the real offer:
- Active Supply : It is the bitcoins that are actively circulating, used in recent transactions, and which directly influence the market.
- Vaulted Supply : These are long -term bitcoins BTC available in trading .
Number of bitcoins in circulation: the importance of this distribution for the market
number of bitcoins in circulation is divided between Active Supply and Vaulted Supply has several implications:
- Liquidity : A larger Active Supply means that many bitcoins are available to be exchanged, which increases liquidity. Conversely, an important Vaulted Supply reduces the quantity of BTC mobilizable.
- Volatility : A limited offer of bitcoins can cause significant price variations during demand fluctuations. The presence of many sleeping corners accentuates rarity.
- Valuation : The rarity of bitcoins can increase their price. Investors see a limited offer with a good eye, which strengthens the perception of Bitcoin as a reserve of value.
- Investment strategy : To make informed decisions, it is essential to know how many BTC are really in circulation and available for trading. On-chain analyzes thus offer a strategic advantage.
Number of bitcoins in circulation: technical details for enthusiasts
The Cointime Economics method in depth
The Cointime Economics model is based on precise measurements of the time of detention of bitcoins. At each validated block, each unused Bitcoin generates a quantity of cornerblocks proportional to its value and the duration during which it is kept. When these bitcoins are finally spent, the accumulated corner is "destroyed", which testifies to their mobilization.
This approach makes it possible to differentiate the actively exchanged bitcoins from those who remain inactive. Based on this methodology, in -depth studies indicate that nearly 15 to 16 million BTC are regularly used, while 3.9 to 4.9 million remain dormant. These results, corroborated by the research of Glassnode and Ark Invest, offer a clear overview of the Bitcoin economy.
The limits and uncertainties of estimates
It is important to note that estimates of the number of bitcoins in effective circulation are based on several hypotheses. For example, inactivity thresholds (5 years, 7 years or over) may vary depending on the study. Some models offer a lower terminal (approximately 1.774 million BTC for some inactive corners) and a upper terminal of up to 6.87 million BTC .
These variations illustrate the complexity of precisely assessing the inactivity of the corners on a decentralized blockchain and the need to use several methods to obtain a reliable estimate.
Number of bitcoins in circulation: references and additional studies
The analyzes presented here are based on the Cointime Economics developed by James Check and David Puell, which constitutes a reference in the ON-Chain study of Bitcoin. Other resources such as Glassnode Studio and Ark Invest reports also offer updated and detailed data.
These works make it possible to better understand how the distribution between Active Supply and Vaulted Supply influences the liquidity, volatility and the valuation of Bitcoin. Indicators such as the adjusted in -corner inflation rate also illustrate how the new BTC emission dilutes the share of actively exchanged corners.
Number of bitcoins in circulation: recommendations for investors and enthusiasts
How to use this data to invest intelligently
For any investor or passionate wishing to embark on the Bitcoin world, it is essential to use these indicators to assess the real market situation. Understanding that only part of the total offer is active makes it possible to better anticipate price movements. For example, in a market where Vaulted Supply is high, high demand can lead to a significant increase in the price due to the rarity of bitcoins available for exchange.
Good security practices
Another important point is to secure your bitcoins . Since certain corners remain inactive by loss of private key , it is imperative to adopt secure storage practices. The use of hardware portfolios, the safeguarding of private keys and the diversification of storage means are highly recommended.
Number of bitcoins in circulation: future prospects for Bitcoin
The evolution of the market and the on-chain analysis
The Bitcoin market is evolving rapidly, and the accuracy of on-chain analyzes continues to improve. In the future, it is likely that new technologies and methods of analysis will further refine estimates in the number of bitcoins in active circulation. This continuous improvement is crucial to understanding the dynamics of liquidity and volatility in a constantly changing market.
In addition, the increase in transparency and accessibility of on-chain data will help investors follow in real time tenders, thus making it possible to adapt their strategies according to market conditions.
The impact of technological innovations
Innovations in the security and storage of cryptocurrencies should also help reduce the number of bitcoins definitively lost. By improving backup solutions and raising users aware of good practices, it is possible that the proportion of the Vaulted Supply is gradually decreasing, which would strengthen the overall liquidity of the market.
These technological developments, associated with always more pointed on-chain analyzes, will allow investors to benefit from a better vision of the market and optimize their purchasing or sales decisions.
Conclusion on the N shade of bitcoins in circulation
The number of bitcoins in circulation is not limited to the total number of BTC extracted. It is a complex indicator that takes into account the distribution between the actively exchanged corners and those which remain inactive or lost. Thanks to research work such as those presented in the Cointime Economics framework, it is possible to distinguish the Active Supply (around 15 to 16 million BTC ) from the Vaulted Supply (around 3.9 to 4.9 million BTC ), without forgetting the shares attributed to the minors or the corners definitively lost.
Understanding this distribution is essential to assess liquidity, volatility and the real value of Bitcoin. For investors, this distinction makes it possible to better understand the risks and opportunities, knowing that only a fraction of the extracted bitcoins is really available on the market. By adopting rigorous security practices and using on-chain analysis tools, everyone can thus make more informed investment decisions.
Ultimately, even if the overall Bitcoin figure may seem high, the dynamics of the real supply is much more nuanced. This in -depth understanding of the number of bitcoins in circulation and its distribution is an essential asset for anyone who wishes to invest in this cryptocurrency or simply follow its developments.
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Yohan Uzzan
Training engineer, I quickly became interested in the field of finance. Convinced that decentralized finance has a bright future ahead of it, I participate in its democratization by developing Crypternon.
