Easy
Bull run : Simple and quick definition
A bull run designates a phase of high prices on a financial market, characterized by generalized optimism and an explosion of investments . In cryptocurrencies, this term is used when Bitcoin and A ltc Oins experience a rapid and spectacular climb over several months.
Concrete example:
👉 In 2021 , Bitcoin went from $ 10,000 to $ 69,000 in one year, with thousands of investors rushing into the market, fueling euphoria.
The definition of the term " bull run " comes from the image of a bull that loads forward , symbol of dynamism and power . Conversely, a lower market is nicknamed a "Bear Market" , illustrating a bear that strikes down with its claws.
Definition of Bull RunS in cryptocurrencies: a story of cycles 🔄
Since the appearance of Bitcoin in 2009 , several major bull run have been observed, often followed by brutal corrections.
| 🗓️ Year | 📈 BTC summit | ⏳ Duration of the exponential rise | 📉 Next correction |
|---|---|---|---|
| 2013 | 1 100 $ | ≈ 2 months | -80 % |
| 2017 | 20 000 $ | ≈ 3 months | -84 % |
| 2021 | 69 000 $ | ≈ 4 months (2 peaks: April & nov.) | -77 % |
📊 Until now, crypto cycles have repeated about 4 years , but why?
Table of contents
Bull Run Definition: trigger factors and warning signs 🚀
1️⃣ halving: a possible explanation but debated 🔥
Bitcoin halving often comes back when you want to define a Bull bull run in cryptocurrencies . This event, which occurs every 4 years , half reduced the reward of minors, thus limiting the issue of new BTC .
👉 Less BTC in circulation = increased rarity = price increase potential.
If we observe the previous cycles, the major bull run started a few months after a halving:
- 2012 → Bull Run 2013
- 2016 → Bull Run 2017
- 2020 → Bull Run 2021
- 2024 → A new cycle to be expected? 👀
However, the only reduction in Bitcoin's supply alone does not explain the price explosions , because demand plays a fundamental role.
2️⃣ The impact of interest rates and monetary policies 💰
Another essential is the state of the global economy and, more specifically, the decisions of central banks on interest rates .
-
📈 High interest rate (central banks tightening their policy)
➡️ Less available liquidity ➡️ Less speculative investments ➡️ Risk of Bear Market. -
📉 Low interest rate (accommodating monetary policy)
➡️ More money injected into the economy ➡️ Having speculation and risk assets ➡️ Ideal conditions for a bull run .
💡 Concrete example:
Between 2020 and 2021 , interest rates were historically low following post-Cavid recovery policies.
Result ? liquidity went to cryptos , participating in the bull run of 2021 .
Conversely, in 2022 , the increase in rates by the Fed caused a strong correction of the markets, including that of the cryptos.
How to identify a bull run ? 📡📊
If everyone around you is starting to talk about cryptocurrencies, it's often already too late . Here are advanced indicators to monitor:
📊 1️⃣ Pi-cycle Top Indicator 🏆
A cross between two mobile averages which has historically pointed out market summits .
🌈 2️⃣ Rainbow Chart
A visual tool based on the logarithmic averages , making it possible to identify the phases of the market :
- 🔵 Accumulation ("dirty fire")
- 🟢 Undervaluation ("Still Cheap")
- 🔴 Overheating ("Bubble Overheated")
📈 3️⃣ NUPL (net unrealized profit/loss)
An indicator measuring the ratio between latent gains and latent losses of investors.
- NUPL> 0.75 = Maximum euphoria = Potential Summit of the cycle .
- NUPL between 0.5 and 0.75 = expanding market.
- NUPL UNDER 0 = Capitulation market (often a good time to accumulate).
4️⃣ Fear & Greed Index
- < 20 : Extreme fear = potential entry point.
- > 75 : Extreme greed = risk of a cycle summit.
Understand the psychology of market cycles with the "Wall Street Cheat Sheet"
The image above, known as "Wall Street Cheat Sheet-Psychology of A Market Cycle" , perfectly illustrates the emotions felt by investors throughout the bull and lowering cycles of the financial markets, including those of cryptocurrencies.
It shows how collective euphoria pushes prices to unbearable peaks, followed by a phase of convenience where investors underestimate the first reversal signals. Then come anxiety, denial and panic , moments when fear prevails and where investors sell massively , often at the worst time.
The capitulation then marks the low point of the cycle, followed by a slow recovery phase marked by skepticism ("disbelief"). This mental card is essential to understand why bull run S are followed by Krachs, and how mass emotions directly influence market volatility. For informed investors, identifying these phases can make it possible to better anticipate the purchase and sales opportunities , rather than following the general feeling of the market.
📈 AltcOIN SEASON Index: the other signal of the Bull Run in Cryptomonnaies 🚀
A bull run Bitcoin almost always one at ltc Oin Season (season of A ltc Oins), period when alternative cryptos (ETH, Sol , BNB , Avx, etc.) perform better than Bitcoin .
🔍 What is AltcOin Season?
A LTC ltc SEASON index measures if 75% of the 50 largest at ltc OINS SURPERFORMENT Bitcoin over a period of 90 days .
- Index> 75 : It's the season of A ltc Oins !
- Index <25 : Bitcoin dominates the market.
💡 Example: During the bull run of 2021 , A ltc Oins like Fantom (FTM) or Polygon (MATIC) exploded with multiples going as far as X100 see more in a few months.
📊 A bull run rhymes almost always with an A ltc Oin Season , where the euphoria pushes investors to look for the next X100 among the cryptos with lower capitalization. Note that the more capitalization, the higher the risk becomes.
How to take advantage of it?
✅ Monitor the A ltc Oin Season Index to find out when the A ltc Oins take over .
✅ Avoid going out too late : the end of an at ltc Oin Season can be brutal, with corrections of -80% in a few days .
✅ Do not neglect Bitcoin : there remains the dominant asset and strongly influences the market.
💡 In summary : Bitcoin often initiates the bull run , but it is the ltc OOS that explodes the most during the maximum euphoria. 🚀
How to anticipate a bull run and enjoy it? 🚀
💡 1. Accumulation before the explosion
the best moments to invest are when no one talks about crypto . Historically, the best yields are obtained by accumulating assets during periods of total market disinterest, long before the hype returned.
💡 2. Monitor macro-economic signals
The decisions of central banks , in particular those of the Fed on interest rates , directly influence the liquidity available on the financial markets.
➡️ Decrease in rates = more liquidity = conducive to a bull run .
➡️ Raper increase = limited liquidity = lower lower market.
💡 3. Not
FOMO ( Fear Of Missing Out ) when everyone talks about "to the moon" , it's often too late . The market euphoria often leads investors to buy at the highest , while Smart Money (Institutional Fund, Whales) take their profits at that time.
💡 4. Gradually get out
of an inverted DCA strategy : selling in stages rather than waiting for a hypothetical summit. This optimizes its profits while reducing exposure to volatility.
💡 5. Secure its funds and avoid the risk of bankruptcy of platforms
Un bull run is always followed by a Bear Market , and it is often at this time that the bad financial management of the centralized platforms (CEX) are revealed. The collapse of FTX in 2022 , Celsius or Blockfi are concrete examples where millions of investors have lost their funds due to dubious financial practices.
✅ Favor decentralized solutions : use cold wallet S ( Ledger , Tangem) to store your cryptos safely .
✅ Do not leave too much funds on centralized platforms : in the event of bankruptcy or gel of withdrawals, your assets no longer belong to you.
✅ Use dex and non -custodial wallets : Metamask, Trust Wallet or Exodus allow access to the DEFI while keeping total control of its funds .
More information here
➡️ A bull run is an opportunity for gains, but also a period when counterpart risks explode. Better to be prepared! 🚀
Conclusion: Are we at the dawn of a new bull run ? 🚦
With the Halving du Bitcoin in April 2024 , the signals of a new bull run emerge:
📊 Current trends in February 2025:
✅ The Fed gradually lower its guiding rates
✅ Massive entries of capital via the Bitcoin Spot ETF.
✅ increasing adoption of decentralized finance.
So the question is not "will there be a bull run ?" " But rather " when will he really start? » . 🚀
Stay on the lookout for key indicators and prepare your investment strategy intelligently .
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Yohan Uzzan
Training engineer, I quickly became interested in the field of finance. Convinced that decentralized finance has a bright future ahead of it, I participate in its democratization by developing Crypternon.
